2024. 5. 13. 11:49ㆍ카테고리 없음
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Investing in technological innovation is key to establishing more sustainable agricultural production that optimizes input and maximizes output without polluting the environment. The commodity price shocks we are seeing as a result of the war in Ukraine could provide a significant boost to innovation.
Sustainable Agriculture Investments
The war in Ukraine has disrupted fuel, fertilizer, and agricultural production and prices - threatening food security in many vulnerable places around the world. A growing global food crisis is shining a light on one of the worst industries - the production and use of fertilizers./
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Today's agriculture is largely limited by the availability of fertilizer which often comes from the limited supply of nitrogen around the world, whether in the form of manure, ash, or chemically produced ammonia. As the world stands today, there are no perfect solutions to the nitrogen problem - just fewer bad choices - and countries are taking a hard look at how they feed themselves. There is a glimmer of hope for a problem that is thousands of years old.
Figure 1: Common wheat futures price before the Ukraine conflict and until June 13, 2022 Figure 2: IMF Global Fertilizer Price Index in PDF
Fertilizers can increase crop yields in the short term; However, this over time contributes to food insecurity in an uncertain world. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine - two of the world's main agricultural production centers - remains one of the most serious threats to global agriculture and food security to date. Fertilizer prices are at record highs as countries scramble to increase agricultural productivity.
Investments in sustainable food and agriculture solutions have the potential to not only benefit from inevitable changes in how the world produces food and feeds itself but also alleviate some of the pressures that to future conflicts. Our response to today's global food security crisis cannot be unique.
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From the beginning of agriculture until 1905, the amount of nitrogen available for agriculture is limited by the availability of plants and minerals on the Earth's surface. Excess nitrogen has always been a challenge because the crops we eat quickly deplete nitrogen from the soil, leaving wasteland barren if the land is not cultivated. fill with nitrogen.
All life on Earth ultimately depends on available nitrogen - and obtaining it has always been an ugly, dangerous, smelly, and unpleasant task. The methods humans have used to capture and fertilize the land with nitrogen have changed throughout our history, with forest burning being the first method (and one that is still, unfortunately, destroying centuries of rainforest growth .). However, the early farmers always had to move to new land because the land soon ran out.
(See PDF - Source: Leigh G.J. The World's Greatest Fix: A History of Nitrogen and Agriculture. Oxford University Press, 19 August 2004.)
In the early 19th century a discovery was made that would greatly increase the world's population and give a new shape to the future. The Pacific islands covered in bird droppings were for thousands of years an endless source of nitrogen, and the world's population grew because more food than ever before could be produced in the same amount. Unfortunately, the supply seemed to be endless, and by the end of the 19th century, wars had broken out to control the dwindling supply of guano which was now vital to land to keep a farm productive enough to feed a large population.
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Although the story could have ended with catastrophic world hunger, instead there was a miraculous solution at the beginning of the 20th century in the form of an industrial fertilizer based on ammonia that captures nitrogen (78%) from the air naturally the high energy. process.Used to use gas. Air contains nitrogen, although it is in a form that is not accessible to plants (N3). Since the dawn of artificial fertilization, the headlines have been filled with breath-taking announcements of bread made from air. The Haber-Bosch process has become so efficient and widespread that it now uses about 1% of all energy produced in the world, and produces about 1% of greenhouse gases, but it in turn sustains almost all human life on Earth.
But as with any solution, there are advantages as well as disadvantages, the cheap and abundant fertilizer means that it is often used in large quantities to avoid the risk of over-fertilizing land. avoid crops. The result is rainy seasons that flood our rivers with excessive nitrogen-driving algal blooms that wreak havoc on ecosystems as they draw oxygen from water create dead zones, and directly poisons invertebrates. Ammonia itself can contribute to air pollution. The ability to grow the same crop year after year on the same plot of land thanks to abundant fertilizers means that weeds and insects can take hold, essentially starting an arms race with grow To protect food crops.
By the middle of the 20th century famine was expected and books like "The Population Bomb" warned of starvation. Instead, people developed new crops that could produce more food per acre, and herbicides and pesticides that shifted the battle between farmers and weeds and pests in the farmer's direction. These same solutions have created countless problems as mono-crops have their risks, and heavy reliance on herbicides and pesticides has contributed to agricultural pollution and degraded environmental health.
This is where we would like to tell you about the wonderful new technology that will eliminate the Haber-Bosch process or a version of organic farming that could feed billions. However, although many researchers are looking for a low temperature / low energy method to make biodegradable nitrogen, none currently works at scale and at a reasonable cost.
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For now, the world is stuck in the Haber-Bosch process of the future, but some very interesting solutions make the use of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, and water more efficient. Farming always means looking at the state of the land and the prospects and trying to make good decisions. But as farms expanded and the number of farmers decreased, the amount of land covered by a farmer increased to the point that a one-size-fits-all solution was the only option. available.
Most farmers today use fertilizer in the same way as they did 100 years ago, and the fertilizer itself, apart from how it is produced, has not changed much over time. We are late for technological progress in this area. As with the electric vehicle industry, advances in biotechnology as well as joint initiatives led by industry and government could transform how nutrients are delivered to plants. soon Investing in technological innovation is key to establishing more sustainable agricultural production that optimizes input and maximizes output without polluting the environment.
Today, we believe that precision agriculture is ahead. Big data-driven by increasingly high precision sensors, inexpensive computing devices, and robust satellite systems as well as highly local weather forecasts mean that decisions about the right treatment for a piece of land can be made. again at the farm level. Return to individual plant scale.
Nutrient sensors in the soil can tell when and how much fertilizer is needed to avoid residue and water, water sensors can tell a field when and how much to water, and soon sensors may be able to know how and when to apply herbicides and pesticides (much less the total amount used) all of which can reduce the downstream effects that farms become biothreat to nearby natural areas.
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In addition, new farming methods show promise for using less land, water, and fertilizers with new strategies of vertical farming, aquaculture, cover crops, and productive crop rotation. nitrogen builds up in the soil itself. As with most efforts to lock in the supply chain, smart agriculture will work hard to provide more food with less. Less fertilizer, less herbicides and pesticides, less water, less labor, and less land. Smart agricultural solutions have the potential to produce food to meet the needs of the world's population and protect and restore marginal lands.
Today's agricultural commodity price shocks can spur the technological advances needed to overcome Earth's natural resource limitations, reduce environmental pollution, and set us on a path to produce and ' global food supply consolidation.
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